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Projection of Mortgage Refinance Rates

Following a peak in the fall of 2022, our market specialist anticipates a decrease in mortgage rates for the remainder of 2023. The average rates for a 30-year mortgage are expected to swing between 6% and 7%, as the economy continues to show unexpected strength despite ongoing high inflation.

The U.S. weekly average rates from Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, as of July 27, 2023, are as follows:

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage: 6.81%
  • 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: 6.11%

When is the Right Time to Refinance Your Mortgage?

Refinancing your mortgage may not be a wise decision at the moment unless your current mortgage rate is significantly over 7%. However, there are a few exceptions that could be worth looking into:

  • You need to change to a longer loan term. If your budget is strained due to a short-term loan like a 15-year mortgage, switching to a 30-year mortgage through refinancing could provide some financial relief.
  • Your credit card balances are high. A cash-out refinance could be a solution if you have accumulated substantial credit card debt but have a significant amount of home equity.
  • Your home requires repairs or renovations. The rates for a cash-out refinance are typically much lower than using a credit card or personal loan to finance your home improvement projects.
  • You wish to eliminate mortgage insurance. Despite higher mortgage rates, home values are still increasing, which could provide you with enough equity to stop making monthly mortgage insurance payments.

To secure the most favorable refinance rates, follow these five steps:

  • 1. Improve your credit score: Minimize credit card debt, refrain from opening new credit lines, and ensure all payments are made promptly to enhance your credit rating.
  • 2. Allocate additional funds for points payment: Each mortgage point is equivalent to 1% of your loan amount and can lower your rate by 0.25 percentage points per point purchased. However, ensure this is cost-effective if you intend to sell your property soon.
  • 3. Engage and negotiate with multiple lenders: While sticking with your existing mortgage company is an option, comparing offers from different lenders could result in significant long-term savings. Don't hesitate to bargain over fees or walk away if the deal isn't satisfactory. Check out our recommended refinance lenders to begin.
  • 4. Evaluate APRs and refinance rates: Lenders are required to reveal your annual percentage rate (APR) and interest rate. The APR reflects the total cost of the quoted refinance rate over its lifetime. A seemingly low rate might not be the best deal if it comes with substantial fees.
  • 5. Steer clear of cash-out refinancing: Lenders impose higher rates for equity withdrawals due to the potential risk of the increased loan amount becoming unmanageable. If you need extra money, consider a home equity loan or a home equity line of credit (HELOC) instead of altering your current mortgage.

Given the current interest rates, it might not be the most opportune time to refinance if you're seeking a lower rate. However, there are other financially beneficial reasons to consider refinancing now, such as eliminating mortgage insurance due to an increase in your home's value, reducing your monthly payment by switching from a 15-year mortgage to a 30-year fixed-rate loan, paying off your loan quicker by refinancing a 30-year term to a 10-, 15- or 20-year term, settling an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) before the ARM rate and payment rise above current 30-year rates, utilizing your home equity for home improvements, debt consolidation or purchasing a vacation home, and replacing a government-backed loan with a conventional loan to eliminate lifetime FHA mortgage insurance required on FHA loans.

If you decide to refinance, ensure that any new loan you're considering will truly benefit you financially, and aligns with how long you plan to stay in your home.

To find the best refinance rate, it's recommended to shop around and consider factors other than just interest rates when choosing a refinancing loan. This includes checking your credit reports and scores, gathering quotes or loan estimates from multiple mortgage lenders, comparing APRs instead of just interest rates, reviewing the "Projected Payments" section of your loan estimate, and budgeting enough cash reserves to cover your refinance closing costs.

Mortgage refinance rates usually fluctuate in sync with purchase mortgage rates, albeit being slightly more costly. However, refinance rates vary from lender to lender, which is why it's crucial to shop around and find a rate that's competitive enough to replace your current mortgage rate.

Refinancing your mortgage means obtaining a new home loan to replace an existing one. A mortgage refinance can help you save money by reducing your interest rate, shortening your loan term, and providing you with extra funds to put toward your financial goals.

However, before you proceed, ensure that you've prepared yourself for a successful refinance by having a goal and a plan.

The pros of refinancing include the possibility of getting a lower interest rate, changing to a shorter loan term, getting a lower monthly payment, reducing or eliminating your private mortgage insurance if your home value has increased, and accessing a large lump sum of cash that can be put toward other financial goals. The cons include having to pay refinance closing costs, pushing out your loan payoff date if you refinance into a loan with the same term as your existing loan, potentially stretching your budget too far if you refinance into a shorter loan term, not breaking even if you move or sell the home too quickly, and reducing the amount of equity you have in your home if you borrow against it when refinancing.

The most common types of mortgage refinance options are offered by conventional lenders, as well as lenders approved by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).

As of May 1, 2023, conventional loan borrowers with certain characteristics may face additional charges or rate increases.

To refinance your mortgage, determine your refinancing "why", gather information about your home's value, apply with at least three to five refinance lenders, lock in your mortgage rate, and close on your refinance.

You should refinance when you're sure to see a long-term financial benefit. You might refinance to get rid of private or FHA mortgage insurance, shorten your loan term, or for many other reasons, but you should only do so if you understand when you'll break even on the refinance and how the changes in your payment amount will affect your monthly budget.